AFL Speed Data

December 8, 2009

Baseball scouts travel with two electronic tools: 1) a radar gun and 2) a stopwatch.

We all know the purpose of the gun. Stopwatches are commonly used to measure the time it takes a player to get from the batter's box to first base (from the point of contact with the ball to contact with the bag). Ideally, you get a guy running out a grounder at full speed. Such an event typically occurs in less than a third of the batter's plate appearances.

Ripe in scouting, I didn't even think to bring a stopwatch to the Arizona Fall League. Fortunately we captured hundreds of video clips. And after reviewing all of them, I was able to gather the data below. It should be more accurate than what most people recorded at live games.

The MLB Scouting Bureau uses the rubric below to grade speed (in seconds). Players are separated by the batters box from which they run -- it generally takes righties longer to get to first than lefties.

Right-handed Left-handed Grade
8 -- 4.0 8 -- 3.9 8 -- Outstanding
7 -- 4.1 7 -- 4.0 7 -- Well above average
6 -- 4.2 6 -- 4.1 6 -- Above average
5 -- 4.3 5 -- 4.2 5 -- Average
4 -- 4.4 4 -- 4.3 4 -- Below average
3 -- 4.5 3 -- 4.4 3 -- Well below average
2 -- 4.6+ 2 -- 4.5+ 2 -- Poor

The table below can be used as rough speed rankings of the 45 AFL players we have data for. The portion to the right is the same data with players alphabetized by first name. 

Rk   Player Grade Ave. Bats No. 1 No. 2 No. 3   Player Grade Ave. Bats No. 1 No. 2 No. 3
1   Hector Gomez 80 4.00 R 4.0 4.0 4.0   Andrew Lambo 50 4.20 L 4.2 4.2  
2   Matt Angle 75 3.20 L 3.2 -- drag bunt   Brad Emaus 20 4.65 R 4.7 4.6  
3   Cale Iorg 75 3.70 R 3.7 -- bunt   Brent Morel 40 4.40 R 4.4    
4   Dustin Ackley 75 3.90 L 3.9       Bryan Anderson 20 4.60 L 4.6 4.6  
5   Domonic Brown 70 4.00 L 4.0 4.0     Buster Posey 30 4.50 R 4.5 4.5  
6   Jose Tabata 70 4.10 R 4.1 4.1     Cale Iorg 75 3.70 R 3.7 -- bunt
7   Jose Iglesias 70 4.10 R 4.1       Carlos Rivero 25 4.57 R 4.5 4.6 4.6
8   Cedric Hunter 60 4.10 L 4.0 4.1 4.2   Carlos Triunfel 40 4.40 R 4.4 4.4 4.4
9   Jemile Weeks 60 4.20 R 4.2 4.2     Casey Kelly 30 4.53 R 4.5 4.5 4.6
10   Casper Wells 60 4.20 R 4.2       Casper Wells 60 4.20 R 4.2    
11   Jordan Danks 55 4.15 L 4.1 4.2     Cedric Hunter 60 4.10 L 4.0 4.1 4.2
12   Grant Desme 55 4.25 R 4.2 4.3     Chris Marrero 20 4.70 R 4.7 4.7 4.7
13   Andrew Lambo 50 4.20 L 4.2 4.2     Chris Parmelee 20 4.65 L 4.7 4.6  
14   Josh Bell 50 4.20 L 4.2 4.2     Daniel Descalso 45 4.25 L 4.3 4.2  
15   Danny Espinosa 50 4.20 L 4.2 4.2     Danny Espinosa 50 4.20 L 4.2 4.2  
16   Daniel Descalso 45 4.25 L 4.3 4.2     Danny Espinosa 30 4.50 R 4.4 4.5 4.6
17   Ryan Kalish 45 4.25 L 4.3 4.2     Daryl Jones 40 4.30 L 4.3 4.3 4.3
18   Marcus Lemon 45 4.30 L 4.3       David Cooper 20 4.80 L 4.8    
19   Russ Mitchell 45 4.35 R 4.4 4.3     Domonic Brown 70 4.00 L 4.0 4.0  
20   Daryl Jones 40 4.30 L 4.3 4.3 4.3   Dustin Ackley 75 3.90 L 3.9    
21   Mitch Mooreland 40 4.30 L 4.3       Freddie Freeman 20 4.75 L 4.8 4.7  
22   Carlos Triunfel 40 4.40 R 4.4 4.4 4.4   Grant Desme 55 4.25 R 4.2 4.3  
23   Matt McBride 40 4.40 R 4.4       Hank Conger 20 4.75 L 4.7 4.8  
24   Brent Morel 40 4.40 R 4.4       Hector Gomez 80 4.00 R 4.0 4.0 4.0
25   Jonathan Lucroy 40 4.43 R 4.5 4.4 4.4   Jason Castro 35 4.35 L 4.4 4.3  
26   Starlin Castro 40 4.45 R 4.5 4.4     Jemile Weeks 60 4.20 R 4.2 4.2  
27   Josh Bell 40 4.45 R 4.4 4.5     Jonathan Lucroy 40 4.43 R 4.5 4.4 4.4
28   Jason Castro 35 4.35 L 4.4 4.3     Jordan Danks 55 4.15 L 4.1 4.2  
29   Rene Tosoni 35 4.40 L 4.4       Jose Iglesias 70 4.10 R 4.1    
30   Danny Espinosa 30 4.50 R 4.4 4.5 4.6   Jose Tabata 70 4.10 R 4.1 4.1  
31   Casey Kelly 30 4.53 R 4.5 4.5 4.6   Josh Bell 50 4.20 L 4.2 4.2  
33   Buster Posey 30 4.50 R 4.5 4.5     Josh Bell 40 4.45 R 4.4 4.5  
32   Mike Moustakas 25 4.45 L 4.5 4.4     Josh Rodriguez 25 4.60 R 4.6    
34   Carlos Rivero 25 4.57 R 4.5 4.6 4.6   Josh Vitters 20 4.70 R 4.7    
35   Josh Rodriguez 25 4.60 R 4.6       Marcus Lemon 45 4.30 L 4.3    
36   Taylor Green 20 4.50 L 4.5       Matt Angle 75 3.20 L 3.2 -- drag bunt
37   Yonder Alonso 20 4.60 L 4.6 4.6     Matt McBride 40 4.40 R 4.4    
38   Bryan Anderson 20 4.60 L 4.6 4.6     Mike Moustakas 25 4.45 L 4.5 4.4  
39   Chris Parmelee 20 4.65 L 4.7 4.6     Mitch Mooreland 40 4.30 L 4.3    
40   Brad Emaus 20 4.65 R 4.7 4.6     Rene Tosoni 35 4.40 L 4.4    
41   Chris Marrero 20 4.70 R 4.7 4.7 4.7   Russ Mitchell 45 4.35 R 4.4 4.3  
42   Josh Vitters 20 4.70 R 4.7       Ryan Kalish 45 4.25 L 4.3 4.2  
43   Hank Conger 20 4.75 L 4.7 4.8     Starlin Castro 40 4.45 R 4.5 4.4  
44   Freddie Freeman 20 4.75 L 4.8 4.7     Taylor Green 20 4.50 L 4.5    
45   David Cooper 20 4.80 L 4.8       Yonder Alonso 20 4.60 L 4.6 4.6  

Before you jump to any conclusions, note the following:

a. A variety of factors can result in a misleading reading. That's why I tried to get as many samples as possible. But still be careful with these small samples. I gave guys grades for the fun of it, but each grade needs to be put into context. Remember, the difference between an outstanding runner and poor runner is only about half a second! That doesn't leave much margin for error.

b. There's always a chance that a guy is hurt or extremely fatigued when you time him. For example, I had Hector Gomez at 4.5 seconds from contact to first base last May -- he wasn't completely healthy then. Gomez was a half second faster at the AFL. On the flip side, Buster Posey was a step slower at the AFL than he was in High-A (tired legs).

c. Some batters take big swings that really slow them down out of the box. Danny Espinosa from the right side is a good example. His swing pulls him from first base then he has to balance and accelerate. But he does just fine getting out of the box as a lefty.

I'll have a follow-up piece shortly to provide some analysis on what I've taken away from this data.

Until then, you can follow me on twitter.