2009 High-A Out Percentage Leaders | |||||||||
Rk. | Name | Pos. | O%* | K% | BB% | Age | TBF | League | Team |
1 | Adalberto Flores | RHP | 0.720 | 30.5% | 8.8% | 22.8 | 239 | Calif | Bakersfield |
2 | Jeremy McBryde | RHP | 0.714 | 26.1% | 6.1% | 22.4 | 314 | Calif | Lake Elsinore |
3 | Michael Montgomery | LHP | 0.712 | 21.7% | 5.7% | 20.2 | 212 | Caro | Wilmington |
4 | Kyle Drabek | RHP | 0.710 | 29.7% | 7.6% | 21.7 | 249 | FSL | Clearwater |
5 | Scott Barnes | LHP | 0.707 | 24.7% | 7.2% | 22.0 | 401 | Calif | San Jose |
6 | Steven Hensley | RHP | 0.702 | 23.0% | 6.4% | 22.7 | 469 | Calif | High Desert |
7 | Ben Hornbeck | LHP | 0.702 | 33.8% | 9.8% | 22.1 | 328 | Calif | Stockton |
8 | Tim Collins | LHP | 0.700 | 36.7% | 10.4% | 20.0 | 270 | FSL | Dunedin |
9 | Daniel Duffy | LHP | 0.700 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 20.7 | 516 | Caro | Wilmington |
10 | Michael Cisco | RHP | 0.699 | 17.1% | 5.0% | 22.3 | 298 | FSL | Clearwater |
11 | Tanner Roark | RHP | 0.696 | 25.7% | 7.6% | 22.9 | 354 | Calif | Bakersfield |
12 | Trevor Harden | RHP | 0.695 | 15.4% | 5.6% | 22.0 | 408 | Calif | Visalia |
13 | Brian Matusz | LHP | 0.694 | 26.8% | 7.6% | 22.6 | 276 | Caro | Frederick |
14 | D.J. Mitchell | RHP | 0.694 | 22.8% | 6.4% | 22.3 | 202 | FSL | Tampa |
15 | Anthony Capra | LHP | 0.694 | 30.9% | 9.7% | 22.4 | 217 | Calif | Stockton |
16 | Christopher Withrow | RHP | 0.693 | 34.0% | 11.3% | 20.4 | 212 | Calif | Inland Empire |
17 | Brett Jacobson | RHP | 0.693 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 22.8 | 231 | FSL | Lakeland |
18 | Steven Johnson | RHP | 0.691 | 24.6% | 10.1% | 22.0 | 414 | Calif | Inland Empire |
19 | Michael Colla | RHP | 0.689 | 18.4% | 6.7% | 22.7 | 282 | Caro | Lynchburg |
20 | Lester Oliveros | RHP | 0.688 | 25.0% | 7.2% | 21.3 | 236 | FSL | Lakeland |
21 | Paolo Espino | RHP | 0.685 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 22.7 | 478 | Caro | Kinston |
22 | Bryan Shaw | RHP | 0.685 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 21.8 | 230 | Calif | Visalia |
23 | Ryan Brasier | RHP | 0.684 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 22.0 | 422 | Calif | Rancho Cucamonga |
24 | Blake Beavan | RHP | 0.683 | 16.5% | 5.2% | 20.6 | 310 | Calif | Bakersfield |
25 | Jeremy Bleich | LHP | 0.683 | 16.9% | 6.6% | 22.2 | 332 | FSL | Tampa |
26 | Carlos Hernandez | LHP | 0.683 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 22.5 | 468 | Calif | Stockton |
27 | Edgar Osuna | LHP | 0.682 | 17.6% | 4.4% | 21.8 | 319 | Caro | Myrtle Beach |
28 | Stephen Fife | RHP | 0.682 | 23.2% | 4.5% | 22.9 | 220 | Caro | Salem |
29 | Edward Paredes | LHP | 0.681 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 22.9 | 294 | Calif | High Desert |
30 | Ethan Hollingsworth | RHP | 0.681 | 20.9% | 6.0% | 22.3 | 268 | Calif | Modesto |
31 | Jenrry Mejia | RHP | 0.681 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 19.9 | 209 | FSL | St. Lucie |
32 | Christopher Hicks | RHP | 0.681 | 17.1% | 6.5% | 22.6 | 603 | Calif | Lancaster |
33 | Bryan Price | RHP | 0.680 | 23.9% | 8.0% | 22.8 | 238 | Caro | Salem |
34 | Chen Lee | RHP | 0.679 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 22.9 | 350 | Caro | Kinston |
35 | Leandro Cespedes | RHP | 0.677 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 22.4 | 592 | Calif | Lancaster |
36 | Christian Friedrich | LHP | 0.676 | 29.8% | 9.0% | 22.2 | 312 | Calif | Modesto |
37 | Timothy Sexton | RHP | 0.674 | 14.8% | 5.0% | 22.2 | 676 | Calif | Inland Empire |
38 | Richard Sullivan | LHP | 0.674 | 20.4% | 6.5% | 22.4 | 201 | Caro | Myrtle Beach |
39 | Richard Zagone | LHP | 0.673 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 22.9 | 282 | Caro | Frederick |
40 | Zachary Britton | LHP | 0.673 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 21.7 | 599 | Caro | Frederick |
41 | William Atwood | LHP | 0.673 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 22.6 | 583 | Caro | Potomac |
42 | Steven Geltz | RHP | 0.673 | 26.8% | 11.8% | 21.8 | 272 | Calif | Rancho Cucamonga |
43 | Ronald Uviedo | RHP | 0.673 | 18.5% | 6.6% | 22.9 | 426 | Caro | Lynchburg |
44 | Richard Bleier | LHP | 0.672 | 17.4% | 3.2% | 22.4 | 622 | Calif | Bakersfield |
45 | Tom Milone | LHP | 0.672 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 22.6 | 611 | Caro | Potomac |
46 | Clayton Tanner | LHP | 0.672 | 24.6% | 6.2% | 21.8 | 337 | Calif | San Jose |
47 | Jacob Rasner | RHP | 0.672 | 18.6% | 8.0% | 22.8 | 527 | Caro | Winston-Salem |
48 | Thomas Palica | LHP | 0.672 | 26.5% | 9.4% | 22.1 | 223 | Caro | Myrtle Beach |
49 | Tyson Ross | RHP | 0.669 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 22.4 | 378 | Calif | Stockton |
50 | Eddie McKiernan | LHP | 0.669 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 20.5 | 253 | Caro | Myrtle Beach |
* O% stands for Out Percentage, which is explained below. |
I've had multiple requests for 2009 Dominance Factor (DF) lists, but I'm hoping this data will be even more valuable. Before you go shaking your head about another new, funky stat, hear me out.
Out percentage is meant to be a simple, production-based stat to help people create pitcher watch lists. The stat is designed to churn out production scores for pitchers that are largely unaffected by park and league. I'd be surprised if it has much predictive value. And it's meant to identify talent more than rank it. I calculate Out Percentage using the formula below:
O% = (K + .72GB + .79FB + .26LD) / (BB + IBB + K + sac hits + HBP + GB + bunts + LD + FB)
The average Out Percentage among my sample High-A 2009 population was 0.657. The value, which factors in strikeouts as well as ball-in-play predictions, is essentially the reciprocal of on-base percentage against.
The coefficients assigned to each of the four outcomes in the numerator above are the percent chance each occurance will turn into an out, as researched in this article. Though not all strikeouts turn into outs, I've utilized a coefficient of one for strikeouts, opposed to something like 0.99.
Important!
I set an age maximum of 22.9 years old as of September 1st, 2009, and a total batters faced minimum of 200 for this list.
While I tried to make corrections when I saw errors, I did come across some data from the database I drew from being labeled as season total, opposed to home or road total. There may be some lines above that are only home or road samples.
This list is not our rankings of the pitchers above. Not only did quite a few relief pitchers face enough batters to qualify for it, like Flores and Collins, but I wouldn't take any of the guys on this list over Brian Matusz. That's crazy. But I would suggest giving Jeremy McBryde and Ben Hornbeck close looks, if you haven't already.
Lastly, note that I have seen a fair amount of fluxuation in this stat, both at home versus on the road and from level to level. Be careful with guys who have small sample sizes.
Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.