Mike Moustakas' stock has clearly taken a hit this season, but how far has he actually fallen?
He's still an elite prospect. It would be overreacting to exclude him from a top 200 prospect list at this point. And he still has enough talent to earn top 100 honors on a lot of prospect lists this offseason.
Strengths
Moustakas is proving to be an above-average contact hitter. Thanks to excellent bat speed, he generates elite power. The soon-to-be 21-year-old doesn't having any gaping holes in his offensive game.
On defense, his arm is strong enough that it's unlikely he'll end up at first base or designated hitter.
Weaknesses
Moustakas isn't more than an average runner.
The 6-foot, 190-pounder's walk rate is nearly a deviation below the Carolina League 2009 average, though his 2008 Low-A walk rate was right around the Midwest League average.
He exited 2008 with a lot of steam after putting a poor April in the past with strong numbers over the rest of the season. Moustakas started off hot in 2009 but has not adjusted well to the Carolina League as the year has progressed -- he has homered in back-to-back games; he's also 7-for-33 over his last 10 games with three walks and nine strikeouts.
Scouting Observations
Little scouting information has been made publically available on Moustakas since he was drafted (2007). We can help with that.
I saw Mike Moustakas play twice during Minor League Spring Training last March/April. Though he looked solid at third base, his range wasn't tested in any of the games I watched.
Steve Carter, our in-house swing analyst, had the following to say about Moustakas after he reviewed my footage of the former second overall draft pick:
Leaky front side and a hard right turn.
His lower half is leaking energy during his stride. Doesn't hold a coil in it and loses a tiny bit of rear hip load. Stays back well but he's leaving power and bat speed on the table. Per the hard right turn, he's trying to yank with his front side instead of powering the swing with the backside. A bit too much shoulder rotation and he tries to power his swing with his front shoulder/bottom hand.
Wilmington park factor
The argument that Moustakas' home park is greatly deflating his offensive numbers has been made.
Baseball Prospectus had Wilmington around league average in 2004. It was a pitcher's park from 2006-2008 according to Baseball Think Factory. But should Wilmington really be brought up as an extreme pitcher's park in Moustakas conversations?
I wouldn't go that far. People are likely looking at Moustakas' home/road vital lines and chalking the large gap up to Wilmington.
There's clearly more to it than this, but his BABIP is nearly 100 points higher on the road than at home. If 10 percent more of the balls you bat in play fall for hits at one location (the road in this case), you're going to look like a much better hitter there.
Health
The only reported injury we've found on Moustakas in 2009 is a recent head injury. He missed four days (August 19th to August 22nd) due to concussion-like symptoms after he was struck in the head by a ground ball.
Conclusions
Moustakas probably isn't going to blossom into an elite contact hitter with power like Andrew McCutchen, but he's not heading down a Bill Rowell path either. He'll continue to be matched up against other elite prepsters from the last decade due to his high draft position.
His 2.1% decrease in walk rate from 2008 to 2009 is concerning. If he continues to walk a deviation less than the league-average hitter, Moustakas' overall value will be limited. He may be able to make some adjustments and put up an impressive power season in 2010. And his success as a contact hitter is promising.
Overall, it's far too early to write Moustakas off. He still has the tools to become an average or better big leaguer.
Discussion Question: Will Mike Moustakas surface as an above-average big leaguer?
(Respond here.)