We've constructed a draft database with every pick from the first five rounds of the 2003 through 2009 drafts. The database is pretty basic, but it's giving us a chance to look at the draft through a unique lens.
More amazing?
1) That the Oakland A's signed Grant Green and Max Stassi, extending their streak of top five rounders inked to 44.
2) That the Tampa Bay Rays have failed to sign nearly 24 percent of their top 100 overall picks since 2003.
What's going on here?
Calculated risk.
Is one approach better than the other?
This is a column, not a dissertation.
Teams sign their top picks
Before anyone jumps all over the Rays, note that LeVon Washington marks their first failed signing of a first-round pick ever. Their other recent failed signings fall in the 68 to 88 pick range (of first five rounders since 2003).
Not including 2009 draft picks Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers, an average of approximately three top 100 overall picks have not signed over the last seven years -- there could be twice that many in 2009.
Wade Townsend (Orioles, 2004), Crow (Nationals, 2008) and Matt Purke (Rangers, 2009) are the only top 15 overall picks who have not signed since 2003.
Flawlessly signing
Eight teams have signed every one of their top five round picks over the life of our database: Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago (NL), Detroit, Florida, Oakland, Seattle and San Francisco.
The Toronto Blue Jays signed 100% of their top five round picks from 2003 to 2008. This year, they couldn't reach agreements with three of their top five rounders.
Failed signings
Meanwhile, three teams have failed to sign four or more top five rounders over the same span of time. They are the previously mentioned Rays, the Astros and the Angels.
The average pick number of these failed signings? Rays 69, Astros 107 and Angels 122.
Not including Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers in 2009, 48 top five rounders have not signed since 2003 -- an average of 6.9 per year or 0.2 players per team. So the average team has missed out on about one and a half top five rounders over our seven-year sample. The teams above are around or above triple that figure.
Who's not signing?
Every junior college player who has been taken inside the top five rounds since 2003 has signed. Discover them and they are yours.
Fifteen college players have not signed (under the same criteria). High schoolers account for 33 of the 48 unsigned picks (about 69%).
Patience can pay
Andrew Miller, Brian Matusz, Bryan Morris, Drew Stubbs, Jason Kipnis, Josh Fields, Josh Lindblom, Kyle Russell, Luke Hochevar and Tanner Scheppers are all recent examples of players who have either gone to college or gone back to college and wound up being selected higher the next time they entered the draft.
Could Matt Harvey (Angels, 2007) be the next? How about Gerrit Cole (Yankees, 2008)? Will we be drooling over Matt Purke in a couple of years?
Closing note
Nearly 97 percent of the 1,130 top five round picks from 2003-2008 signed the year they were drafted.
Feel free to join in on the discussion and request data in our College and Draft forum.