Who needs a baseball cave when you already have 80 square feet of a baseball laboratory at your disposal?
Methods
So this is what happens when I spend five hours in my room alone...
I programmed a series of excel macros that took sheets of fangraphs.com July 7, 2009 data, calculated league-adjusted standard deviation from the mean in: 1) walk percentage 2) strikeout percentage and 3) isolated power, and ordered players based on how far they deviated from the average player in their league.
That was a mouth full!
I then inputted ages for every player who scored at least one and a half deviations above his league average and established crude age criteria to weed out relatively old players.
OK, that's the last of the run-on sentences...I promise.
Criteria
1. Players need at least 200 plate appearances in one league.
2. Age Cap A: Triple and Double-A players must be under 24 years old as of July 8, 2009; High-A players 22.5 or younger; Low-A 21.75 or younger
Age Cap B: The one-year older crowd. Triple and Double-A players must be over 24 years old and under 25 as of July 8, 2009; High-A players age 22.6-23.5; Low-A 21.76-22.75.
| League Adjusted Top Hitters with Age Cap A | |||||
| Rk | Name | STDEV | Team | Lvl | Age |
| 1 | Jaff Decker | 6.66 | Padres | Low-A (MWL) | 19.4 |
| 2 | Carlos Santana | 5.37 | Indians | AA (East) | 23.3 |
| 3 | Logan Forsythe | 4.85 | Padres | A+ (CAL) | 22.5 |
| 4 | Fernando Garcia | 4.53 | Royals | Low-A (MWL) | 21.0 |
| 5 | Mike Stanton | 3.76 | Marlins | A+ (FSL) | 19.7 |
| 6 | Buster Posey | 3.63 | Giants | A+ (CAL) | 22.3 |
| 7 | Derek Norris | 3.52 | Nationals | Low-A (SAL) | 20.4 |
| 8 | Beamer Weems | 3.44 | Padres | A+ (CAL) | 22.0 |
| 9 | Nicholas Weglarz | 3.26 | Indians | AA (East) | 21.6 |
| 10 | Brett Lawrie | 2.99 | Brewers | Low-A (MWL) | 19.5 |
| 11 | Justin Smoak | 2.98 | Rangers | AA (TEX) | 22.6 |
| 12 | Dominic Brown | 2.89 | Phillies | A+ (FSL) | 21.9 |
| 13 | Tyler Flowers | 2.89 | White Sox | AA (SOU) | 23.5 |
| 14 | Thomas Neal | 2.80 | Giants | A+ (CAL) | 21.9 |
| 15 | Jason Castro | 2.80 | Astros | A+ (CAL) | 22.1 |
| 16 | Cord Phelps | 2.76 | Indians | A+ (Caro) | 22.5 |
| 17 | Jason Heyward | 2.75 | Braves | A+ (Caro) | 19.9 |
| 18 | Johnny Giavotella | 2.73 | Royals | A+ (Caro) | 22.0 |
| 19 | Justin Jacobs | 2.73 | Marlins | Low-A (SAL) | 21.0 |
| 20 | David Mailman | 2.48 | Red Sox | Low-A (SAL) | 20.8 |
| 21 | Daniel Descalso | 2.46 | Cardinals | AA (TEX) | 22.7 |
| 22 | Reegie Corona | 2.44 | Yankees | AA (East) | 22.7 |
| 23 | Matthew Sweeney | 2.42 | Angels | A+ (CAL) | 21.3 |
| 24 | Ryan Strieby | 2.42 | Tigers | AA (East) | 23.9 |
| 25 | Steven Caseres | 2.35 | Dodgers | A+ (CAL) | 22.3 |
| 26 | Josh Donaldson | 2.35 | Athletics | AA (TEX) | 23.6 |
| 27 | Carlos Gonzalez | 2.34 | Rockies | AAA (PCL) | 23.7 |
| 28 | Brandon Snyder | 2.32 | Orioles | AA (East) | 22.6 |
| 29 | Kyler Burke | 2.20 | Cubs | Low-A (MWL) | 21.2 |
| 30 | Tyson Gillies | 2.17 | Mariners | A+ (CAL) | 20.7 |
| 31 | Andrew Cumberland | 2.16 | Padres | Low-A (MWL) | 20.5 |
| 32 | Jonathan Lucroy | 2.10 | Brewers | AA (SOU) | 23.1 |
| 33 | Michael Taylor | 2.09 | Phillies | AA (East) | 23.6 |
| 34 | Ike Davis | 2.08 | Mets | A+ (FSL) | 22.3 |
| 35 | Andrew McCutchen | 2.06 | Pirates | AAA (INT) | 22.8 |
| 36 | Jake Jefferies | 2.05 | Rays | Low-A (SAL) | 21.7 |
| 37 | Jack Shuck | 2.04 | Astros | A+ (CAL) | 22.1 |
| 38 | Mike Carp | 2.01 | Mariners | AAA (PCL) | 23.0 |
| 39 | Eric Sogard | 1.92 | Padres | AA (TEX) | 23.1 |
| 40 | Adrian Cardenas | 1.92 | Athletics | AA (TEX) | 21.8 |
| 41 | Daric Barton | 1.90 | Athletics | AAA (PCL) | 23.9 |
| 42 | Pedro Alvarez | 1.89 | Pirates | A+ (Caro) | 22.4 |
| 43 | Neil Walker | 1.88 | Pirates | AAA (INT) | 23.8 |
| 44 | Blake DeWitt | 1.80 | Dodgers | AAA (PCL) | 23.9 |
| 45 | Chris Carter | 1.80 | Athletics | AA (TEX) | 22.6 |
| 46 | Reid Brignac | 1.79 | Rays | AAA (INT) | 23.5 |
| 47 | Brent Morel | 1.74 | White Sox | A+ (Caro) | 22.2 |
| 48 | Zelous Wheeler | 1.72 | Brewers | A+ (FSL) | 22.5 |
| 49 | Alex Liddi | 1.72 | Mariners | A+ (CAL) | 20.9 |
| 50 | Alex Avila | 1.70 | Tigers | AA (East) | 22.5 |
| 51 | Todd Frazier | 1.68 | Reds | AA (SOU) | 23.4 |
| 52 | Jeremy Barfield | 1.67 | Athletics | Low-A (MWL) | 21.0 |
| 53 | Chris Parmelee | 1.65 | Twins | A+ (FSL) | 21.4 |
| 54 | James Skelton | 1.62 | D'Backs | AA (SOU) | 23.7 |
| 55 | Josh Thole | 1.61 | Mets | AA (East) | 22.7 |
| 56 | Anthony Rizzo | 1.60 | Red Sox | Low-A (SAL) | 19.9 |
| 57 | Alexia Amarista | 1.60 | Angels | Low-A (MWL) | 20.3 |
| 58 | Conor Gillaspie | 1.58 | Giants | A+ (CAL) | 22.0 |
| 59 | Eric Hosmer | 1.58 | Royals | Low-A (MWL) | 19.7 |
| 60 | Ezequiel Carrera | 1.52 | Mariners | AA (SOU) | 22.1 |
| 61 | Lonnie Chisenhall | 1.51 | Indians | A+ (Caro) | 20.8 |
| 62 | Desmond Jennings | 1.51 | Rays | AA (SOU) | 22.7 |
| Discuss this list in our minor league forum >>> | |||||
| League Adjusted Top Hitters with Age Cap B | |||||
| Rk | Name | STDEV | Team | Lvl | Age |
| 1 | James Darnell | 5.34 | Padres | Low-A (MWL) | 22.7 |
| 2 | Allan Dykstra | 4.56 | Padres | Low-A (MWL) | 23.3 |
| 3 | Jonathan Gaston | 3.56 | Astros | A+ (CAL) | 22.7 |
| 4 | Byron Wiley | 3.49 | Reds | Low-A (MWL) | 23.1 |
| 5 | Joseph Dunigan | 3.23 | Mariners | A+ (CAL) | 22.7 |
| 6 | Petey Paramore | 3.22 | Athletics | Low-A (MWL) | 22.6 |
| 7 | Jordan Parraz | 3.16 | Royals | AA (TEX) | 23.3 |
| 8 | Chase D'Arnaud | 3.07 | Pirates | Low-A (SAL) | 23.3 |
| 9 | Chris Heisey | 3.02 | Reds | AA (SOU) | 24.8 |
| 10 | Reese Havens | 2.89 | Mets | A+ (FSL) | 22.7 |
| 11 | Scott Sizemore | 2.72 | Tigers | AA (East) | 24.5 |
| 12 | Daniel Brewer | 2.57 | Yankees | Low-A (SAL) | 24.4 |
| 13 | Matt LaPorta | 2.57 | Indians | AAA (INT) | 24.8 |
| 14 | Eric Campbell | 2.42 | Mets | Low-A (SAL) | 24.1 |
| 15 | Jacob Elmore | 2.33 | D'Backs | Low-A (MWL) | 24.1 |
| 16 | Michael McKenry | 2.29 | Rockies | AA (TEX) | 24.7 |
| 17 | Danny Valencia | 2.22 | Twins | AA (East) | 24.5 |
| 18 | Tyler Henley | 2.21 | Cardinals | AA (TEX) | 24.9 |
| 19 | Melky Mesa | 2.21 | Yankees | Low-A (SAL) | 22.5 |
| 20 | Zachary Lutz | 2.15 | Mets | A+ (FSL) | 22.1 |
| 21 | Matt Clark | 2.14 | Padres | Low-A (MWL) | 22.6 |
| 22 | Matt Joyce | 2.13 | Rays | AAA (INT) | 22.7 |
| 23 | Ryne White | 1.94 | D'Backs | A+ (CAL) | 22.7 |
| 24 | Blake Tekotte | 1.93 | Padres | Low-A (MWL) | 22.0 |
| 25 | Tim Kennelly | 1.78 | Phillies | A+ (FSL) | 22.3 |
| 26 | James Rapoport | 1.73 | Cardinals | AA (TEX) | 22.1 |
| 27 | Justin Parker | 1.73 | D'Backs | Low-A (MWL) | 22.4 |
| 28 | Sean Rooney | 1.73 | Nationals | A+ (Caro) | 22.6 |
| 29 | David Adams | 1.71 | Yankees | Low-A (SAL) | 22.1 |
| 30 | Billy Nowlin | 1.60 | Tigers | Low-A (MWL) | 22.3 |
| 31 | Ollie Linton | 1.59 | D'Backs | A+ (CAL) | 22.2 |
| 32 | Karexon Sanchez | 1.58 | Indians | Low-A (SAL) | 22.6 |
| 33 | Cody Puckett | 1.56 | Reds | Low-A (MWL) | 21.9 |
| 34 | Craig Cooper | 1.54 | Padres | AA (TEX) | 22.3 |
| Discuss this list in our minor league forum >>> | |||||
1. I did not perform park adjustments.
2. Deviations in walk rate, strikeout rate and isolated power were weighted evenly.
3. It's possible that walk percentage, strikeout percentage and isolated power are not strong measures of big league potential.
4. League averages were created with only one year of data.
5. Age caps are a very crude way of placing value on age versus level.
6. Hitters who have split time between leagues or had injuries could be missed with this study.
7. Were still dealing with small 2009 samples.
Closing Notes:
A. I have deviations for every 2009 full-season hitter with over 200 plate appearances in a single league. Feel free to request a player in our minor league forum and I'll give you his score.
B. Where's Jesus Montero's, you ask? He missed being eligible for this list by two High-A plate appearances. Going off of his High-A numbers, he'd rank 25th with a 2.37 STDEV score. Tim Beckham comes in at -0.22. Mike Moustakas -0.13. Lars Anderson 0.35. Austin Jackson -1.32.
C. If you're not too familiar with which minor league parks inflate/deflate power numbers the most:
Lancaster (Astros High-A), High Desert (Mariners High-A) and Albuquerque (Marlins Triple-A) are three of the most hitter-friendly parks in the minors.
Inland Empire (Dodgers High-A), Connecticut (Giants Double-A), and Trenton (Yankees Double-A) are three of the most pitcher-friendly parks.
Contact Adam Foster at adamf@projectprospect.com