Now that I've begun to sink my teeth into stacking up the top pitching prospects in the game, I'm starting to get a good idea of how my Top 25 overall prospect list is going to shape up. Allow the question below to serve as a bit of a preview.
Brian Kirkley of Champaign, Illinois writes:
Adam,
I have to choose between some prospects in my dynasty league. I have the 2nd and 3rd overall picks and the 1st pick is held by a Giants fan (Madison Bumgarner is almost a lock to be taken #1). So I am left to decide between the following prospects:
Trevor Cahill, SP OAK
Neftali Feliz, SP TEX
Tim Alderson, SP SF
Brett Anderson, SP OAK
Derek Holland, SP TEX
Buster Posey, C SF
Chris Tillman, SP BAL
Thomas Hanson, SP ATL
Tim Beckham, SS TB
Stephen Strasburg, SP SDSU
Grant Green, SS USC
Dustin Ackley, OF UNC
I was hoping that you could tell me which two prospects to take because I keep reading different reports on all of them. One of my biggest team needs is starting pitching, but I do not want to limit myself to just pitchers. I would like to draft the best prospect. I was wondering which two prospects you would draft from this list? Thank you very much for any help I am just finding it impossible to make a decision.
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Hey Brian,
You're probably having a tough time making this decision because a case can be made for each of these guys being Top 25 prospects -- Ackley, Green, and Strasburg could instantly be considered in that range once they sign pro contracts.
Bumgarner would be my first pick but if he's taken with the No. 1 overall pick in your draft, I'd go with Brett Anderson and Stephen Strasburg.
The only things that I really have on Anderson are: 1) He only pitched 105.0 regular season innings last season and 120.1 in 2007 -- he participated in the Futures Game and was with Team USA for the second half of 2008 (pitched 4.0 innings with Team USA -- so he may not be ready to be a full-season MLB starter until 2010 and 2) His walk rate climbed a bit from High-A to Double-A. Other than that, I have trouble finding flaws with him.
Anderson was a Top 100 overall draft pick out of high school (55th in 2006). He strikes out a lot of batters (26.0% career K). He has strong control and command of the strike zone (5.1% career BB). He's mature beyond his years when it comes to knowledge of pitching. I think Anderson is a strong bet to become a front-of-the-rotation starter. He just needs to prove that he can retire big league hitters and endure a full-season workload. Those aren't small tasks, but I believe his track record indicates that he's primed to face such challenges.
Strasburg is a great bet to be the No. 1 overall pick in 2009. I think he's as good of a prospect as David Price was entering his junior season in college. That makes him the next best player on your list in my eyes.
Of course, pitchers are always injury risks. Anderson and Strasburg may be slowed by injuries before they establish themselves in the big leagues. So if you're high on Alderson, Cahill, Feliz, Hanson, or Tillman for one reason or another, I wouldn't fault you for going with any of them. I don't think Holland is on the same tier as the other pitchers you listed.
As far as hitters go, Tim Beckham and Buster Posey are both inside my personal Top 25 overall prospect list right now. I just think Beckham's floor is low enough that he's not quite as valuable as Anderson and Strasburg are right now. And Posey's still a bit of a wild card due to his lack of experience in pro ball -- ditto for Ackley and Green. But the same could also have been said of Matt Wieters a year ago.
Good luck,
Adam Foster
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