College Hot/Cold Report: Week 12

I apologize to the loyal readers of my column – yes, I do live in a fantasy world – for the lack (zero) of articles chronicling college ball/draft prospects recently. As some of you may know – who troll the forums – I’ve been rather busy lately, finals plus starting a new job means less time to write. That time squeeze however is now over and I promise to pump out a lot of useful info between now and the draft…which is now just about three weeks away. So without further delay, let’s take a look at some of what college’s best players have done to date and see who’s been bit by the injury bug now.

Hot List

Justin Smoak 1B South Carolina Jr.

Smoak has been arguably the best hitter in college baseball over the past couple of weeks. His season numbers now stand .389/.509/.758 with 20 home runs (tied for 6^th nationally), 51 walks to just 26 strikeouts, and he continues to force the words, “future gold glove” out of scouts’ mouths with his play at first. He’s virtually a lock to be a top 10 pick and might just have the highest floor of any player in that mix.

Brett Wallace 3B Arizona State Jr.

The reigning Pac-10 Triple Crown winner is currently tops in average, RBIs and second in home runs to Cal first baseman David Cooper. Wallace’s vital line is .409/.528/.758 with 41 walks, 29 strikeouts and 14 of 17 in attempted steals. With athleticism that belies his physical appearance, Wallace need not instantly be placed on the Billy Butler Career DH Program (BBCDH). Like Smoak, Wallace has been excelled at NCAA ball since stepping foot on campus and guys with that kind of sustained track record of success are rare and extremely valuable come draft day. His lack of doubles is somewhat worrisome for a guy’s who’s going to carve his niche with the bat but his XBH% has risen each year of his college career: 32.14% (’06), 35.51 (’07), 38.03 (’08).

Eric Thames OF Pepperdine Jr.

I proclaimed in a previous article that I was “driving the Eric Thames bandwagon” and the road is pretty smooth for the Pepperdine superstar. Thames is now hitting .407/.513/.769 with 13 of the Waves 40 total team home runs and is 11 of 12 on steals. Once again, Pepperdine is one of the most extreme pitcher’s parks in the country. My new draft board, which will be 77 players long – the same number as picks in the first two rounds of the draft – will feature Thames at the top college outfielder.

Buster Posey C Florida State Jr.

I’m going to try and resist “he was all over the field” puns but in a May 12^th route over Savanna State, Posey played all nine positions for the Seminoles – and hit a grand slam. Recruited as a shortstop slash pitcher out of high school, Posey was seen as a mid-to-late first round pick after showing well his nascence to catching as a sophomore. Posey was quite productive in his first two years but has taken thing to a whole different level this spring, and now leads every player in college baseball in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage (.471/.571/.858) while sporting a 3.90 GPA. There seems to be sizeable momentum within the Rays organization to take Posey No. 1 overall – although should anyone tell them that Dioner Navarro is just 24 years old and after a monster second half of last season is currently hitting .387? Need shouldn’t be a reason to take Posey for the Rays…but then again, he could just be that good.

Andrew Cashner RP TCU Jr.

One thing that I have learned this year covering the draft is that within the scouting community itself there are no real “sleeper, unknowns” for big league teams, these guys really do know a ton. Taken in the 18^th and 29^th rounds the past two years as a JuCo pitcher, Cashner began this year with little fan fare but has worked his way up to first round consideration with a remarkable spring as well as a nice jump in velocity. The Horn Frogs’ closer has struck out 71 batters in just 46.1 innings. Cashner has easy velocity on a mid 90s fastball that has been clocked as high as 97 on multiple occasions and a potential plus slurvy breaking ball. As one might expect when suddenly adding 3-5 mph on your fastball, command has been somewhat of a concern as Cashner has walked 24 batters this spring. The delivery and arm strength are great, the fastball command is pretty good and the breaking ball command lags somewhat behind. Still, Cashner’s upside is that of a true closer at the major league level and he has a very good shot of at least being a quality set up man.

Cold Spell

Ike Davis 1B Arizona State Jr.

The Sun Devils’ 1B/RF/RP/doubles-hitting-machine was sidelined for a few weeks with a rib muscle strain. While the injury shouldn’t affect him long term, keeping a player out of action is never a good thing – especially in cross-checker season. Davis returned to action this weekend. He has been fairly healthy as a collegiate athlete, but pro teams will be sure to spend a little extra time with the medical staff looking over Davis before June’s draft.

Tanner Scheppers RHP Fresno State Jr.

Scheppers had been held out of his previous couple starts, having his dates pushed back before it was finally reported that he had a stress fracture in his shoulder and will be out for the rest of the college season. While Davis’ injury may not be a long-term, a shoulder fracture can have very bad effects for a pitcher. Before the injury Scheppers was the third best college pitcher on my – and most – boards and a possible top 10 pick. But now there really is no telling how far he’s going to drop. The elimination of the traditional draft and follow with the implementation of the August 15^th hard deadline for draftees to sign really hurts a guy like Scheppers because whichever team takes a chance on him will not get the benefit of seeing him 100% healthy before being forced to decide whether to sign him or not. Scheppers still has an upside that only seven or eight pitchers in the entire draft can match, but the odds of him reaching that ceiling now seems a lot worse.

Lincoln Hamilton can be reached at lhamilton@dentonoutlaws.com.