I thought ranking the game's top young center fielders was tough. Compared to trying to reason through the game's young pitchers, that was nothing. After spending a good part of the week researching for this list, I'm becoming confident that it's noticeably more difficult for young pitchers to make the jump to above-average big leaguers than hitters. Ranking Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes on the same list as Fausto Carmona and Matt Cain was a dizzying challenge. A case could be made for putting the No. 6-14 pitchers on this list in any order. And a lot could change with the rest of this list over the next five months. That's just how pitching goes.
Notes: The level that appears following each player's name is the highest level where the player has faced over 100 batters. We used an age cutoff of April 11th, 2008.
1. Felix Hernandez, SEA (4/8/86) - MLB
Two and a half years into his big-league career, Hernandez has yet to make the jump from good No. 2 starter to true ace. We're ranking him ahead of Hamels -- who was arguably a better pitcher last season -- because we think this will be the year "The King" finally breaks out. On top of being a good strikeout pitcher who doesn't issue many walks (20.4% K in '07, 6.6% BB), Hernandez also does an excellent job inducing ground balls (62%). He lowed his walk rate and increased his ground ball rate from 2006 to 2007 (7.4% to 6.6%; 58% to 62%). Hernandez is the second-youngest pitcher in the big leagues - Phil Hughes is about two and a half months younger. He has a chance to become a legendary pitcher.
2. Cole Hamels, PHI (12/27/83) - MLB
Given how rocky Hamels' minor league career was, his big league success still seems a little too good to be true. But Hamels has been a good No. 2 starter for over 300.0 innings. His time in the minors means virtually nothing now. Hamels isn't nearly as good as Hernandez at getting ground balls (44% last season). That has helped lead to him giving up quite a few more extra-base hits than Hernandez (.164 IsoPA vs. .138 last season) -- and yes, Hamels' home park doesn't help that figure either. Similar to Hernandez, Hamels was able to lower his walk rate last season (8.6% in 2006 to 5.8%) while taking a hit in the strikeout department (26.0% in 2006 to 23.8%). It's possible that Hamels will pass Hernandez up in our rankings by midseason. He's a very good bet to become an ace.
3. Yovani Gallardo, MIL (2/27/86) - MLB
Going by his ownership rate in CBS Sportsline Leagues (50%), it's clear that Gallardo's knee injury has allowed fantasy owners to quickly forget how special he could be. The good thing is he's close to returning and the arthroscopic knee surgery he had last March shouldn't affect his long-term value. Now, a refresher on how good Gallardo was in the bigs last season: 3.35 FIP, 21.7% K, 110.1 innings. Forty more innings like that and there may be a case to be made that Gallardo has achieved ace status. He was one of the best pitchers in the minors from 2006 to 2007 and came within inches of claiming our nod for No. 1 prospect in baseball at one point last season. Gallardo could still be in for an adjustment period, though we wouldn't be surprised to see him handle it in stride.
4. Tim Lincecum, SF (6/15/84) - MLB
Giants' fans still may not even realize what they have in Tim Lincecum. We think he'll outpich Matt Cain in 2007 -- and Cain's no slouch. Lincecum struck out 40.4% of the Triple-A hitters he faced last season (114 faced) -- yes, that's basically unheard of. He then joined the Giants and produced a near-ace-quality 3.57 FIP over 146.1 innings (24.3% K, 10.5% BB, 48% GB). If Lincecum can find a way to limit his walk total this season, he could emerge as the best starting pitcher in the National League West not named Peavy or Webb.
5. Scott Kazmir, TB (1/24/84) - MLB
We would have considered Kazmir for the No. 1 spot on this list, if not for his mounting injury history. The lefty strained his left elbow on February 26th (2008) and still hasn't returned to regular-season action. He missed the final five weeks of the 2006 season due to tightness in his left shoulder. Additionally, the Rays have opted not to lock Kazmir up long-term to date. But Kazmir was a fringe ace from 2006 to 2007. He's one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game (26.9% since 2006) and he gets a decent amount of ground balls (44%). We just see him as a major injury risk at this point.
6. Clay Buchholz, BOS (8/14/84) - MLB
It's not easy to rank a guy who's still technically a prospect ahead of some established No. 2 starters. But we think Buchholz is a good bet to become an ace. He struck out 32.7% of the batters he faced last season while walking just 7.6% -- and throwing a no-hitter against the Orioles. On top of being hard to hit, Buchholz limited the batters who did hit their way on against him to singles in large last season. The biggest hurdle for him will be establishing himself over a full season in the bigs. He only pitched 148.0 regular-season innings in 2007.
7. Joba Chamberlain, NYY (9/23/85) - MLB
Chamberlain owned major league hitters during his 2007 callup. Both his 1.90 FIP and 37.4% K rate over those 24.0 innings are ridiculous. It's highly unlikely that he'll be that affective in the Yankees' rotation and over a full season, but he'd be a No. 2 caliber starter if he pitched half as well. New York has opted to have Chamberlain work out of the bullpen for the begining of 2008 in order to keep his innings down. He injured his hamstring in his first Spring Training (2007), which limited him to 112.3 innings last season. A healthy, and similarly effective season could help Chamberlain shoot up this list.
8. Fausto Carmona, CLE (12/7/83) - MLB
Flourishing in his first full MLB season, Carmona was an average No. 2 AL starter last season by FIP (4.01). He's an extreme-ground-ball pitcher (66% last season) who can strike hitters out on occasion (15.6%). Carmona excelled by limiting extra-base hits (.103 IsoPA) and not walking many batters (6.9%). He'll need to shrink his walk rate even further or give up fewer hits in order to blossom into an ace. And even if that does happen, we don't think he has the potential to be as dominant as the guys we have above him.
9. Matt Cain, SF (10/1/84) - MLB
Like Hamels, Cain has been a No. 2 starter for over 300.0 MLB innings. And that definitely earns him a lot of points in our book. But can he take the next step and become an ace-caliber arm? Unlike Hamels, were have some doubts there with Cain. While Cain's strikeout and groundball rates are both solid (19.6% and 40% in '07, respectively), his walk rate is below-average (10.3% career as of 4/11/08). Lincecum is the only pitcher who we have ahead of Cain with a higher walk rate. And his strikeout rate is sick -- 4.7% higher than Cain's in '07. Cain certainly has a lot going for him. We're just not sure if he has as much upside as the bulk of the pitchers on this list.
10. Phil Hughes, NYY (6/24/86) - MLB
The verdict is still out on Hughes. Once among the top prospects in baseball, still among the youngest players in the majors -- 2nd youngest to be exact -- Hughes has us focused on one thing right now. What has he done above Double-A? The answer: Not enough to convince us that he's a great bet to be a No. 1 starter. But could he be? Sure. Hughes struck out 22.1% of the batter he faced last season while walking 8.9%. He also looks like a potential above-average ground-ball pitcher. Hughes could make strides toward winning over critics this season, or his value may take a substantial hit. We like him as a solid No. 2 starter.
11. Clayton Kershaw, LAD (3/19/88) - AA
There's very little holding Kershaw back from becoming an excellent bet to turn in top-of-the-rotation starter. His strikeout rate is awesome (31.3% last season), he doesn't give up many extra-base-hits (.100 IsoPA), and he's being brought along quickly -- 5th youngest player in Double-A. So what's keeping him from reaching his ceiling? Walks for one (12.9% BB last season). Then just proving himself in the upper minors -- he has thrown less than 50.0 innings above Low-A. Because of his age, it's reasonable to expect Kershaw to improve upon his 2007 totals in 2008, at least so long as he's in the minors. He's a very good bet to enter 2009 as the top pitching prospect in baseball.
12. Johnny Cueto, CIN (2/15/86) - AA
Cueto has an overpowering arsenal and excellent command of it. He's not going to keep mowing down teams like his did in his first two pro starts, but he's looking like a great bet to turn in a rookie season as at least a No. 2 starter. Cueto has struck out 25.4% of the batters he's faced since 2005, while only walking 5.6%. Many people fear that his low ground-ball rate will haunt him in the bigs -- especially at Great American Ballpark. Cueto didn't give up a ton of extra-base-hits last season (.112 IsoPA). It's likely, however, that he'll give up substantially more in 2008. We liked Cueto at the end of 2007 more than we liked Gallardo at the end of 2006. The 5-foot-11 Dominican native may have what it takes to become a true ace.
13. Chad Billingsley, LAD (6/29/84) - MLB
It's true, Billingsley is fairly similar to Cain, statistically speaking. The main difference between the two is that Cain has found success in the big leagues over a longer period of time. Billingsley's high 2007 walk rate (10.3%) helped make him a decent No. 2 starter last season opposed to a good one. He struck out 22.6% of the batters he faced while generating a 40% ground ball rate and 3.96 FIP (4.82 in 90.0 2006 innings). An elite prospect just a few years ago, Billingsley is a safe bet to turn into a good No. 2 pitcher. We think it's unlikely that he'll be much more than that, though.
14. Francisco Liriano, MIN (10/26/83) - MLB
Liriano was one of the best pitchers in baseball two years ago (30.4% K, 6.8% BB, 57% GB, 2.60 FIP). One Tomm John operation later and he's a wild card. The Giants traded Liriano to the Twins because they saw him as a major injury risk. And the pitcher who's rehabbing now may not be that different than the pitcher who blew out his elbow. How many innings can Liriano last without another major injury? 200? 2,000? Will he return to his 2006 form? If everything goes seamlessly for Liriano, he could be one of the top three pitchers on this list at year's end. We'll believe it when we see it, though.
15. Zack Greinke, KC (11/21/83) - MLB
A No. 2-3 starter back in 2005, Greinke was looking like a talented up-and-coming arm not that long ago. But his social axiety disorder led to him spending almost all of 2006 in Double-A. He came back strong in 2007, practically picking up right where he left off (20.9% K, 7.1% BB, 3.81 FIP). It should be noted, though, that 63.2% of Greinke's appearances were out of the bullpen last season. He'll be challenged to replicate his 2007 success over a full season in the rotation this year. If he passes that test, we'll endorse him as a legitimate No. 2 starter.
16. David Price, TB (8/26/85) - NCAA
If you've gotten impatient with waiting for Price to make his regular-season, professional debut, we don't blame you. It's been 239 days since the lefty signed with the Rays. Price has been sidelined with a strained left elbow since March 20th. He's expected to return to the mound within the next couple of weeks. The consensus top college pitcher in the 2007 Draft, Price was predicted to go No. 1 overall pick almost a year before the Devil Rays called his name. He struck out approximately 36.3% of the NCAA hitters he faced last season with Vanderbilt, while walking 6.2% and turning in a 1.68 FIP. He has No. 1-2 potential and could move through the minors quickly once he's healthy.
17. Jake McGee, TB (8/2/86) - AA
It's hard not to get excited about a pitcher who has put up a 30.6% strikeout rate in Double-A (134 batters faced). While he's still trying to prove that he can consistently shut down Double-A hitters, McGee is a powerful hurler with top-of-the-rotation potential. His walk rate is a bit concerning (10.4% since the start of 2006), but he's still young enough to improve that. And even if he doesn't, he's good enough at missing bats that it may not matter. A flawless Double-A/Triple-A season could put McGee in a similar light as Chamberlain and Hughes are in now entering 2009.
18. Homer Bailey, CIN (5/3/86) - AAA
Bailey struggled with injuries and bouts of ineffectiveness in 2007. He wasn't the same dominant pitcher who overwhelmed Double-A hitters in 2006 (27.8% K, 2.20 FIP, 68.0 IP). But Bailey's still the 8th youngest player in Triple-A. And he's shown promising ground-ball tendencies in the past, which could make him a very good No. 2 starter -- maybe even an ace -- if he can figure things out. Bailey's also just 4.2 innings away from "graduating" from the minors. He'll likely find a spot in the Reds' rotation before long. Expect him to find more success than he did in the bigs last year, though he may only be a No. 3 this year.
19. Edinson Volquez, CIN (6/3/83) - MLB
Volquez has been in what we like to call prospect purgatory over the last few seasons. He was lit up in his 2006 call-up (6.65 FIP) but came back with a vengeance last season (4.64) -- both stints just under 35.0 innings. Whatever Volquez was working on in the minors, it looks like it's paying off. He struck out 26.5% of the battes he faced in 2007 while walking 10.2% and producing a .142 IsoPA. Those second two figures are a little scary, but if Volquez can keep missing bats, he could turn into a No. 2 starter.
20. Andrew Miller, FLA (5/21/85) - MLB
The fifth college pitcher taken in the 2006 Draft -- ahead of Lincecum and Chamberlain -- Miller hasn't overwhelmed any hitters above High-A since signing on with the Tigers. Now a Marlin, at least his career appears to be heading in a better direction than any of the four college pitchers taken ahead of him. The lefty has pitched less than 100.0 innings in the minors and over 70.0 in the majors. He's a good ground-ball pitcher who also has the potential to miss a decent amount of bats (18.4% last season). Miller's primary problems to date have been that his walk rate is a little high (10.1% last season) and he has given up a lot of hits, though not many of them have gone for extra bases. We think Miller will emerge as a No. 2-3 starter this season. And there's still a chance that he'll turn into an ace.
21. Rick Porcello, DET (12/27/88) - HS
There's a good chance that Porcello will ultimately be the top pitcher from the 2007 Draft class. He was given the largest signing bonus of any high school pitcher in the last six years, and he has three potential above-average pitches. The 6-foot-5, 200-pounder has made two starts for High-A Lakeland, where he's gone 10.0 innings allowing five hits, zero earned runs, and two walks and striking out seven. Though there's plenty of room for any prep pitcher to falter, Porcello seems too talented to fail. We'll be disappointed if he doesn't wind up being as good as or better than Kershaw -- good luck kid.
22. Matt Garza, TB (11/26/83) - MLB
We dropped Garza outside of the top 20 on this list after we heard about his radial nerve irritation. He's expected to miss a month and who knows what kind of affect the injury will have on his career -- here's a link about radial nerve dysfunction. Garza has been a No. 2-3 pitcher so far in the big leagues (141.0 innings). He struck out 18.3% of the batters he faced last season while walking 8.7% and generating a 48% ground-ball rate -- all improvements from his 2006 stint in the bigs: 16.4%, 9.9%, 38%. Expect him to be a No. 3 starter over a full season, but don't be surprised if he settles in as a No. 2. That is, if his injury doesn't wind up being serious.
23. Aaron Crow, MIZ (11/11/86) - NCAA
Pitching for Missouri, Crow currently gets our nod as the top collegiate arm in the 2008 draft class. The 6-foot-3, 195-pound righty doesn't walk many batters, has a fastball that has touched 98 MPH, and complements it with a very good slider. Crow will likely be a Top 5 overall pick this June and could go as high as No. 1. He has 71 strikeouts vs. 13 walks through 57.0 innings this season -- 45 hits, 13 earned runs. Josh Poore, our resident player evaluator, saw Crow pitch last week and got the following reads on his arsenal: fastball sat at 92 and touched 94 (spotted it on both sides of the plate), slider was 83-85 with significant break, 85 MPH changeup was used sparingly and is a distant third pitch. Crow has top-of-the-rotation potential. If he stays healthy and continues to pitch well, he could be a top 15 prospect on our 2009 Top 150 prospect list.
24. Brian Matusz, USD (2/11/87) - NCAA
Matusz entered the season as the top draft-eligible college arm in the nation. The 6-foot-5, 200-pound lefty is behind Crow for us now because of how dominant Crow has been, not because he hasn't stepped up to the task of dominating on the mound. Matusz has 80 strikeouts vs. 18 walks in 58.2 innings with the San Diego Toreros -- 46 hits (6 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR), 13 ER. Because Matusz has a stronger secondary arsenal than Crow, he's largely considered the more polished of the two. Crow's top two pitches are probably better than Matusz' top two, though. Matusz is a relatively safe bet to become a big-league starter. He's a solid bet to turn into at least No. 2 starter and could rank inside the top 20 of our 2009 Top 150 prospect list.
25. Ian Kennedy, NYY (12/19/84) - MLB
Kennedy made his big-league debut in his first full season of pro ball. It look him less than 150.0 minor league innings to reach the show. Selected 21st overall in the 2006 Draft -- before Chamberlain -- Kennedy doesn't have a standout fastball but he still manages to get a good amount of strikeouts and does an exceptional job limiting extra-base hits. His changeup is an above-average pitch and we've been impressed by his curveball. Kennedy struck out 27.2% of the batters he faced last season (A+/AA/AAA/MLB) while walking 9.2% and producing an IsoPA of .072. To some, he may look like a pitcher who "mysteriously gets the job done." To us, he's a good bet to become a No. 2 starter -- probably not much more than that, though.
Honorable Mentions: Gio Gonzalez (OAK), Carlos Villanueva (MIL), Wade Davis (TB), Franklin Morales (COL), and Nick Adenhart (LAA).
Adam Foster can be reached at adamf@projectprospect.com.