Like they do every year, Major League General Managers spent this offseason searching the world for the best available talent. 2007 will see the Major League debuts of dozens of Canadian, Mexican, Dominican, Venezuelan, Panamanian, Cuban, Caribbean, and even European players.
Over the last decade or so, a small but steadily increasing group of Asian players have made their way into North American baseball. These players are different, because the Japanese League, Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), is successful enough financially to keep their elite amateur players at home. Importing these players to Major League Baseball is a costly venture, and many teams avoid the inevitable bidding war that the best players produce.
Still, some teams persist, and given Japan’s victory in last years World Baseball Classic, this persistence is justified. For teams willing to make the investment, NPB players can fill immediate Major League needs while bringing in a new potential fan base.
This year’s imports are Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima of the Boston Red Sox, Kei Igawa of the New York Yankees, and Akinori Iwamura of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Each player was a large investment, but they all filled immediate need for their respective teams.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP (Red Sox)
Arguably
the most highly touted Asian signing in the history of Major League
Baseball, the 26-year-old Matsuzaka received a six-year, $52 million,
incentive-laden contract after putting up stellar numbers for the Seibu
Lions of the Pacific League.
Over 8 years, Matsuzaka had 1,355 strikeouts in 1,402.2 innings, with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He was consistently excellent over those 8 seasons, so it wouldn’t be a stretch to expect his MLB numbers to be equally consistent, if slightly less effective.
Daisuke will likely fall just short of his incredible hype, yet still perform admirably in a stacked American League Eastern Division. He should maintain his strikeout per inning ratio, although his ERA and WHIP will rise, probably to around 3.50 and 1.35 respectively. You’re witnessing the dawn of what will be a very productive major league career.
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Hideki Okajima, RP (Red Sox)
If
Matsuzaka’s numbers were amazingly consistent, 31-year-old Hideki
Okajima’s have been anything but. As a veteran reliever, he will be
relied upon less by the club, though his past inconsistencies make his
2007 Major League contribution harder to project.
In his last four seasons (2002-2005) with the Yomiuri Giants of the Central League, Okajima’s ERA jumped all over the place: 3.40, 4.89, 3.09, and finally 4.75 in 2005. When he moved to the Nippon Ham Fighters of the Pacific League in 2006, his ERA dipped to 2.14. The only thing that did remain consistent was his high walk rate.
Expect a decent first season from Okajima, something to the tune of a 3.50 ERA, but eventually his lack of control will catch up to him and cause him to struggle, something that the fans at Fenway Park won’t likely tolerate for a lengthy period of time.
Kei Igawa, SP (Yankees)
Like
Okajima, 27-year-old Kei Igawa has also suffered from inconsistency in
recent years. Between 2001 and 2003, Igawa was one of the best players
in all of Japanese baseball, before suffering through sub-par seasons
in 2004 and 2005.
Igawa was wild this spring, walking 12 batters in 23 innings. His fastball isn’t overpowering, so his control has been his selling point when he has been successful – like in his 2006 season with Hanshin where he walked just 49 batters in 209 innings. If he can’t throw strikes in Florida, he certainly won’t be able to throw strikes in New York, so his control will be something to watch in his first several starts of 2007.
Even if he gets his command under control, Igawa is a hittable pitcher. Expect an ERA near 4.00 and a WHIP around 1.40.
Akinori Iwamura, 3B (Devil Rays)
The
only big name hitter to make his way westward this season, Iwamura
slugged 106 home runs in his last three seasons for the Tokyo Yakult
Swallows of the Central League. Besides his power, the 28-year-old also
boasts solid plate discipline and six gold glove awards at third base.
Power has never translated well from NPB to MLB. Hideki Matsui, who hit 50 home runs in his last season with the Yomiuri Giants, lost about 10-15 homers off of his average in his first three Major League seasons.
Strikeouts have been Iwamura’s biggest problem. Many are speculating that he will cut down his swing in order to make contact more consistantly, but you have to wonder if a veteran in the prime of his career can have success making such any major adjustments at the plate. Expect Iwamura to have an above-average season with the glove and an average season at the plate: 15 home runs with a .750-.775 OPS.
Patrick Hennessey theblacktornado@gmail.com.