Adoption of the on-base percentage philosophy has led some teams to pull a 180 from the speedster model.
This philosophy is based around the theory that OBP is the most important component in scoring runs because outs are not being made as often. Brought into baseball by a Bay Area radio personality, NPR’s Eric Walker, the theory allows for leadoff hitters like the Boston Red Sox’s Kevin Youkilis to have a different kind of success.
In the pre-Theo years in Boston, a guy with a .279 batting average and 13 home runs might not have even have made the team. With some clubs ditching the old NL style of "small ball," a guy with a good on-base percentage can find the base paths so your No. 3 and No. 4 hitters can bring him home. Not wasting an out getting caught stealing or failing to stretching a single into a double becomes the key.
This article is not a revisitation of the theories in Moneyball; it is more a study of different types of leadoff hitters around league and how they affect their lineups and your fantasy lineups.
I analyzed the numbers of eight leadoff hitters – picked because they very rarely were taken out of the leadoff spot and because they represent the four main types of leadoff hitters in the league today.
The things I look for when crunching numbers of players like this are doubles and stolen bases.
It’s safe to assume that the vast majority of stolen bases occur going from 1st base to 2nd base. This assumption essentially turns a stolen base into a double. Having a leadoff player on 2nd base obviously makes the probability of that player scoring a run much higher. Therefore it is reasonable to think that stolen bases plus doubles subtracted by caught stealing gives a good number for assessing run scoring ability. Let’s call this number “B2” for two bases.
Going by 2006 statistics, the player with the most stolen bases plus doubles subtracted by caught stealing is Jose Reyes. Reyes had 77 B2s and 122 runs, whereas Chone Figgins had 59 B2s and 93 runs – Marcus Giles had 37 B2s and only 87 runs.
It’s important to note that the players with low B2s who score lots of runs generally come from offenses with above-average home run power. For instance, Boston and Texas had Kevin Youkilis (47 B2) and Gary Matthews Jr. (45 B2) leadoff for them – both managed to score 100 runs. The reason these players were able to score 100 runs apiece involves their squad’s deep power lineup…while they also held the two highest on base percentages on the list.
The B2 stat is a good barometer for players who steal bases with lower on-base percentages, whereas on-base percentage and batting average represent the basis for run scoring leadoff men without the ability to nab 20-plus bags.
Lineups themselves are the most noticeable study in which leadoff hitters score the most runs. It is also important to note that for certain teams it is good to have on-base percentage sort of hitters like a Kevin Youkilis – even Jason Kendall – because they tend to make pitchers throw more pitches than players like Chone Figgins, Jose Reyes, and Alfonso Soriano.
The American league probably benefits most from Kevin Youkilis-types because even if a hitter in this mold does not get on base, it generally takes about 5-8 pitches to get him out. Multiply that by 4 and you get 20 to 40 pitches – that is roughly 20-40% of a pitcher’s typical workload count.
Stolen Bases, on-base percentage, and pitches taken are three things that teams are starting to favor in leadoff hitters. Then there is the oldest of the old school, which favors just a high batting average. The high batting average guys include the David Ecksteins of the world, those who give you an average in the high .290's, but little else in any other category. Then there’s Ichiro, who gives you high average and is fresh of a season where he stole 45 bases with only 2 times caught stealing, but he rarely walks.
Each type of leadoff hitter is good fit for certain types of lineups, but the old prototypical leadoff hitter is nearly extinct.
FANTASY CONCLUSION
Fantasy Baseball values for leadoff hitters are much different than their value to a real team. The vast majority of Fantasy Baseball leagues are 5x5 leagues, where on-base percentage is not included. But as Fantasy Baseball evolves, a guy like Kevin Youkilis will turn into more than just a Monday, Thursday fill in.
Reyes value is well documented, as well as the other base stealers, but there is no leadoff position in most fantasy baseball. The fantasy value in said “leadoff hitters” is really more at-bats – and opportunities to score and steal. With that being said, I still thought it would be fun to wrap up with a list of the top ten fantasy players who are most likely to occupy the leadoff spot in 2007:
1. Alfonso Soriano (His stats - besides runs - are not leadoff-esque)
2. Jose Reyes (Very minor injury risk, otherwise he's a great player)
3. Grady Sizemore (Possible .290 30-30 guy)
4. Derek Jeter (Tom Brady of baseball…or is Tom Brady the DJ of football?)
5. Ichiro Suzuki (Getting older, but even a slight drop in numbers won't hurt that much)
6. Jimmy Rollins (Offers solid production across the board for a SS)
7. Hanley Ramirez (Very young; huge upside)
8. Brian Roberts (Power stroke came back in second half)
9. Rafael Furcal (Virtual lock for 30 stolen bases)
10. Chone Figgins (Will hit better than .260 with 35 SBs - and all that position eligibility)
Cody Woods can be reached at zalbag84@yahoo.com .