We can spend all the time in the world trying to predict just how effective Phil Hughes is going to be as a major league pitcher, but in the end the proof will be in the proverbial pudding. Any number of things could happen between now and the end of his career.
So instead, let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and assume for the moment that he’s going to translate well to the major league game, not be hampered by injuries, and meet his potential head on. That would put him in the upper tier of major league pitchers.
So let’s take a look at some of today’s best pitchers as well as some of the top pitching prospects for the last couple of years and see how they stack up against Hughes’ minor league numbers to date. Being that Hughes is a starting pitcher, only starting pitchers will be considered. To determine the sample of major league pitchers used, I cross referenced PRC (Pitching Runs Created) and ERA+. The top 3 pitchers in baseball in 2006 according to this methodology are:
Name PRC ERA+
Johan Santana 156 164
Roy Oswalt 128 151
Brandon Webb 124 153
Now,
admittedly the use of these three pitchers as a comparison for Hughes
is bordering on arbitrary, but the reasons will become clear soon. For
some perspective, here are the rest of the top 15 pitchers. You can
make an argument for Carpenter over Webb, but it doesn't change much if
you do.
Name PRC ERA+
Chris Carpenter 125 144
Bronson Arroyo 122 140
John Smoltz 124 128
Roy Halladay 119 148
Carlos Zambrano 110 135
Aaron Harang 110 122
John Lackey 109 124
Fransisco Liriano 103 211
Jason Schmidt 103 127
C.C. Sabathia 101 139
Mike Mussina 99 126
Jason Jennings 97 127
So
here are the minor league breakdowns of each pitcher up through their
first Double-A season or the highest level they reached before making
the jump to the major league level.
Name Age Level G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Santana 17 RK 23 40.0 5.85 0.00 4.95 11.48 1.20 2.70
Santana 18 RK 9 36.1 12.14 0.50 4.46 6.19 1.84 7.93
Santana 18 A- 1 4.0 2.25 0.00 13.50 11.25 1.75 2.25
Santana 19 A- 15 86.2 8.41 0.93 2.18 9.14 1.18 4.36
Santana 19 A 2 6.2 18.90 1.35 4.05 8.10 2.55 9.45
Santana 20 A 27 160.1 9.09 0.79 3.09 8.42 1.35 4.66
Name Age Level G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Oswalt 20 RK 5 28.1 7.94 0.64 2.22 8.89 1.13 0.64
Oswalt 20 A- 9 51.2 8.71 0.17 2.61 7.66 1.26 4.53
Oswalt 21 RK 4 16.0 5.63 1.13 0.53 15.19 0.69 2.25
Oswalt 21 A- 11 70.1 6.27 0.38 3.97 8.57 1.14 2.18
Oswalt 22 A 22 151.1 8.56 0.48 3.21 8.50 1.31 4.46
Oswalt 23 A+ 8 45.1 10.32 0.20 2.18 9.33 1.39 2.98
Oswalt 23 AA 19 129.2 7.36 0.35 1.53 9.79 0.99 1.94
Name Age Level G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Webb 21 RK 1 1.0 18.00 0.00 0.00 27.00 2.00 9.00
Webb 21 A 12 16.2 5.40 0.00 4.86 9.72 1.14 3.24
Webb 22 A+ 28 162.1 9.65 0.50 2.44 8.76 1.34 3.99
Webb 23 AA 25 152.0 8.35 0.24 3.49 7.22 1.32 3.14
From here, we'll take a look at the top pitching prospect in each of the last 10 years as rated by Baseball America.
1997
Name Age Level G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Kerry Wood 18 RK 1 3.0 0.00 0.00 3.00 6.00 0.33 0.00
Kerry Wood 18 A- 2 4.1 10.38 0.00 10.38 10.39 2.31 10.38
Kerry Wood 19 A+ 1 3.0 0.00 0.00 3.00 6.00 0.33 0.00
Kerry Wood 20 A+ 22 114.1 5.67 0.47 5.51 10.71 1.24 2.91
Kerry Wood 21 AA 19 94.0 5.55 0.19 7.56 10.15 1.46 4.50
1998 - Kerry Wood again
1999
Name Age Level G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Rick Ankiel 19 A 7 35.0 3.86 0.00 3.09 10.54 0.77 2.06
Rick Ankiel 19 A+ 21 126.0 6.50 0.57 2.71 12.93 1.02 2.79
Rick Ankiel 20 AA 8 49.1 4.56 0.36 2.92 13.68 0.83 0.91
2000 - Ankiel again.
2001
Name Age Level G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Josh Beckett 20 A 13 59.1 6.83 0.61 2.28 9.25 1.01 2.12
Josh Beckett 21 A+ 13 65.2 4.39 0.00 2.06 13.84 0.72 1.23
Josh Beckett 21 AA 13 74.1 6.05 0.97 2.30 12.35 0.93 1.82
2002 - Beckett again
2003
Name Age Level G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Jesse Foppert 21 A 14 70.0 4.50 0.90 2.96 11.31 0.83 1.93
Jesse Foppert 22 AA 11 61.1 6.46 0.44 3.08 10.86 1.06 2.79
2004
Name Age Level G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Edwin Jackson 17 RK 12 22.0 5.73 0.41 7.77 9.41 1.50 2.45
Edwin Jackson 18 A 19 104.1 6.79 0.17 2.84 7.31 1.07 1.98
Edwin Jackson 19 AA 27 148.1 7.34 0.55 3.22 9.53 1.17 3.70
2005
Name Age Level G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Felix Hernandez 17 A- 11 55.0 7.04 0.33 3.93 11.95 1.22 2.29
Felix Hernandez 17 A 2 14.0 5.79 0.64 1.93 11.57 0.86 1.93
Felix Hernandez 18 A+ 16 92.0 8.32 0.49 2.54 11.15 1.21 2.74
Felix Hernandez 19 AA 10 57.1 7.38 0.47 3.30 9.10 1.19 3.30
2006
Name Age Level G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
F. Liriano 17 RK 13 62.0 7.40 0.44 3.48 9.73 1.21 3.63
F. Liriano 17 A- 2 9.0 7.00 2.00 1.00 12.00 0.89 5.00
F. Liriano 18 A 16 80.0 6.86 0.68 3.49 9.56 1.15 3.49
F. Liriano 19 RK 4 8.1 5.40 1.08 6.48 9.72 1.32 4.32
F. Liriano 19 A+ 1 0.2 67.50 0.00 27.00 0.00 10.50 54.00
F. Liriano 20 A+ 21 117.0 9.08 0.46 3.31 9.62 1.38 4.00
F. Liriano 20 AA 7 39.2 10.21 0.91 3.86 11.12 1.56 3.18
F. Liriano 21 AA 13 76.2 8.22 0.70 3.05 10.80 1.25 3.64
And now, Hughes' numbers through his Double-A season.
Name Age Level G IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP ERA
Philip Hughes 18 RK 3 5.0 7.20 0.00 0.00 14.40 0.80 0.00
Philip Hughes 19 A 12 68.2 6.03 0.13 2.10 9.44 0.90 1.97
Philip Hughes 19 A+ 5 17.2 4.08 0.00 2.04 10.70 0.68 3.06
Philip Hughes 20 A+ 5 30.0 5.70 0.00 0.60 9.00 0.70 1.80
Philip Hughes 20 AA 21 116.0 5.66 0.39 2.48 10.71 0.91 2.25
When
looking at these lists, Hughes arguably has more in common with the top
prospects from each year than he does from the three best pitchers of
2006. In fact, the pitcher he appears to have the most in common with
is Rick Ankiel, followed closely by Josh Beckett. Now, that's not to
say that Hughes is destined for a career path following either of those
two. But they do appear to be the best comparisons for his current
success in the minor leagues, out of this list of pitchers.
What’s really striking is that a trend is starting to emerge. Each of the players who were the top pitching prospects for one of the last ten seasons had their major league debut by the age of 21 except Jesse Foppert. Each of them has had a major setback of some kind since their debut. Kerry Wood can’t stay healthy. Rick Ankiel’s last two attempts at being a major league pitcher resulted in 7.13 and 5.40 ERA’s, respectively. Josh Beckett posted a 5.01 ERA in 2006 and gave up 36 home runs. Jesse Foppert has yet to have a successful major league season. Edwin Jackson has struggled in 2004, 2005 and 2006. Felix Hernandez had a 4.52 ERA in 2006 with a nearly three point rise in his H/9, a doubling of his HR/9 and his highest WHIP since being drafted. And Liriano just blew out his elbow.
So what does this mean? Is Phil Hughes destined to disappoint? Well, that depends on the fans. He’s about to enter a very tumultuous period for pitchers. In a study done by Nate Silver and Will Carroll for an article published in February of 2003 regarding injuries to pitchers they said:
"However, the risk does appear to be to some degree dependent on a pitcher's age. For the very young pitchers in our study--ages 21 and 22--the risk of injury is significantly higher, in excess of 20 percent."
In fact, their study showed that the attrition rate doesn’t reach that level again until a pitcher’s age 37 season. For many pitchers, attrition is at its highest point in their careers during their age 21 and 22 seasons. So, it is in Brian Cashman’s best interest to put pitch counts on him and limit his innings over the next couple of years. He does seem prepared to exercise restraint, which should mitigate the risk detailed above, but not remove it.
In addition to this, Hughes has yet to throw a single pitch above the Double-A level. If we return to the assumption that he’s going to translate well to the major league game and meet his potential head on, we should look at some of the best pitchers in the majors over the last decade or so.
Greg Maddux, for example, made his major league debut at age 20 and had his first full season at age 21. His ERA’s in those years were 5.52 and 5.61, respectively. He settled in at age 22 and has gone on to have a remarkable career. Tom Glavine is a similar case, being called up at age 21 and struggling in both that and his age 22 season. But the 5.54 and 4.56 ERA’s were followed up in his age 23 season with a 3.68 ERA.
Curt Schilling was called up in his age 21 season and he struggled as well. 9.82 and 6.23 ERA’s followed before he had his first strong major league season. And it wasn’t until his age 25 season that he had his first dominant year as a starter. John Smoltz was called up at age 21 and was knocked around to the tune of 5.48 runs per 9 innings. He settled in the next year with a 2.94 ERA.
How about the three pitchers mentioned above as the best in the majors in 2006? Roy Oswalt didn’t get his call up until he was 24 but did hit a bump in the road in Single-A at age 22. It was his only professional ERA above 4.00 aside from a limited stint in Triple-A before his major league debut. He posted a 2.73 ERA in 28 appearances that year.
Brandon Webb, like Oswalt wasn’t called up until he was 24. Like Oswalt, has had a stellar major league career thus far. But Johan Santana appears to be a better comparison. He was called up at age 21 and struggled so much he started his age 23 season in Triple-A. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball ever since.
It’s not until we start looking at some of the all time greats – Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens… – that we see pitchers called up this young without struggling. Of course, it is possible Hughes will end up being an all time great but it’s far more likely he’s going to struggle a little in his first season or two. Yankees fans need to keep this in mind as they watch him grow.
New York can be a very difficult place to struggle. Jose Contreras comes to mind as an example of an extremely talented pitcher who couldn’t get it together in pinstripes. Hughes is likely going to have his ups and downs before he settles in as the pitcher he’s going to be throughout his career.
Have some patience with him. He’ll be a fine pitcher some day.
Damian Dydyn can be reached at damian.dydyn@gmail.com.