Five years ago, a pair of dazzling pitching prospect highlighted baseball’s crop of minor league talent.
Both were selected 2nd overall in their respective drafts and had established that they were head and shoulders above their fellow pitching prospects. One was known for his magnificent control and his ability to regularly miss bats (14.28 K/9 in AA as a 21-year-old). The other didn’t have quite the same kind of impeccable command, but dominated minor league hitters with his extremely live arm (12.35 K/9 as a 21-year-old in AA).
Not that you can begin to call either of these two prospects busts but both have been mild disappointments. One of them finished third in the NL Cy Young voting in 2003. But other than that ballot, neither has received any Cy Young consideration.
In case you haven’t gotten it yet, I’m talking about Mark Prior and Josh Beckett.
Largely derailed by injuries, Prior (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) has maintained a 1.23 WHIP and struck out 10.37 batters per nine in 657.0 major league innings. The USC product has walked 3.05 batters and given up 1.05 home runs per nine. Prior had a 1.69 WHIP and just 7.83 K/9 in 43.2 innings last season.
A postseason hero in 2003, Beckett (6-foot-5, 220 pounds) is the owner of a 1.25 major league WHIP and 8.46 K/9 in 813.2 innings. Beckett has walked 3.29 and given up 1.01 home runs per nine. Last season, Beckett had a 1.29 WHIP and 6.95 K/9 in 204.2 innings.
So why am I, as a prospect columnist, writing about two guys who lost their rookie status in 2002? To help put the two current minor league pitching phenoms into perspective.
Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey, two righties who were taken in the first round out of high school (2004), have established themselves as the top two pitching prospects in the game. Known for his impeccable command, Hughes (6-foot-5, 220 pounds) struck out 10.71 batters while walking 2.48 per nine in 116.0 Double-A innings last season as a 20-year-old. Dominating minor league hitters with his extremely live arm but developing ability to command the strike zone, Bailey (6-foot-4, 205 pounds) stuck out 10.19 batters and walked 3.71 per nine in 68.0 Double-A innings last season also as a 20-year-old.
While Prior and Beckett were both about a year older than Hughes and Bailey in Double-A, their 14.28 and 12.35 respective K/9 rates are a notch above what Hughes (10.71) and Bailey (10.19) would likely be capable of even if they repeated the level.
There’s no doubt that Prior and Beckett were the better prospect duo. Even if Hughes and Bailey both manage to retain their rookie status entering 2008 and rank No. 1 and No. 2 on most 2008 top 100 prospect lists, they still won’t reach the same prospect level that Prior and Beckett did.
I’d go as far to say that Hughes and Bailey are merely 90% as good as Prior and Beckett were as prospects.
Through my experience of following prospects, I’ve found that it’s fairly easy to fall into the trap of thinking that just because a pair of prospects appear elite among their peers they’re going to be elite in the big leagues. Recent examples: Andy Marte and Dallas McPherson entering 2005, Jesse Foppert and Gavin Floyd entering 2003, Josh Hamilton and Cory Patterson entering 2001.
Not that Hughes and Bailey will go on to have lesser careers than Prior and Beckett, I just believe the odds of Hughes and Bailey being superior are slim – even with perhaps ¼ of Prior and Beckett’s careers already unveiled.
Five years from now, a pair of brilliant young pitching prospects will have started to sculpt their big league legacies. But even if everything goes according to plan, they’ll be longshots to contend for Cy Young honors, as the pair of dazzling pitching prospects who arrived on the big league scene five years before them will likely attract more voter attention.
Think Hughes and Bailey will have better big league careers than Prior and Beckett? You can send me your arguements at adamwfoster@gmail.com.